Investors cannot time the market…..WRONG

During the last year we have seen Brexit, Donald Trump as President of the U.S.A. and far right parties in Europe making headway in the polls. All of this can be described as Populism. This move if carried to a conclusion is intended to shift wealth away from today`s elite back down to the hands of the lower and middle classes. If anything like this was to happen, then it will mean that corporate profits will fall, and this will be accompanied by falls in the value of  already over-priced multi-nationals on the world`s stock markets. This has already taken place with large oil companies who are seeing renewable energies eat their breakfast. It is simply a question of watch this space.

Now, none of the above is breaking news, yet financial institutions are still advocating that private investors should not be active in the market to protect their investments. Instead they should take a passive approach and let their money be eroded during a market collapse in the hope that in the years to come it will recover.

We at “The Saltydog Investor” know that this way of investing makes no sense and is simply WRONG. The financial press will tell you that it is too expensive to trade your funds. Again they are simply WRONG. If you use a fund supermarket platform then the charges for trading your OEICs are virtually negligible. These same people will tell you that you cannot get the information to time the market. WRONG again.

At Saltydog we produce performance numbers for OEICS, Unit Trusts, ITs and ETFs on a weekly basis presented in an understandable fashion. We have been running a real demonstration portfolio for the last six years funded with our own money. It has avoided the market drops and has gained 59%. What is not to like about that?

As a D.I.Y. investor in the U.K. with the Brexit negotiations coming up close and personal; with The Donald making hay whilst the dollar swings one way and the other. You will need to be active not passive. Good luck.

Don’t believe me? Just read here then

Standard Deviation Report – March 2017

On page 8 of the March 2017 newsletter, there’s a piece about looking at out Unit Trust and OEIC data in a slightly different way, and there’s also an excerpt from a table.

Here’s a copy of the article, and a link to download the complete table.

Here at Saltydog we’re always keen to find different ways to look at the data, to try and identify new trends, and to pick funds ‘on the up’, but in a steady way.

In our regular weekly data, the funds are initially sorted into their Groups, to give us an indication of their volatility, and then we calculate the decile rankings of all the funds in each Group to help us analyse their performance.

In the four week data, we initially sort the funds by their four week decile ranking, and then by the most recent individual weekly decile rankings. We’re looking for funds that have done well over the last four weeks, and that are doing well at the moment.

Here we’ve tried to do something similar, but in a slightly different way.

We’ve looked at all the funds as a big group, and only selected the ones that have gone up by at least 0.8% in the last 10 days. We’re targeting 12% a year, and are allowing for some slippage.

We have then sorted them by their standard deviation over the last 10 days. This is to try and help identify the funds that have been doing well, but with the least volatility.

Finally, we have used colour to highlight where the funds have maintained this rate of growth over four, twelve, and twenty-six weeks.

We’ll keep an eye on the funds that we think look promising from this report, and see how they perform in the coming weeks. If anyone has any suggestions of how we could develop this report please let us know.

Click here for the full report

 

Somewhere a red phone box dies and a little piece of Buckingham Palace breaks off.

Since the declaration of ‘Brexit’, it has become obvious that politicians, House of Lords peers, and BBC reporters have little intention of making our exit a smooth one. None of them were ever going to be kept quiet by a lack of information. Fortunately, there does appear to be a flow of foreign money investing in the UK, taking advantage of cheap sterling and a willing labour force. Let us hope that this continues through the tribulations of the next two years, whilst we re-establish the country as an exporter of technology and manufactured goods – hopefully without losing too much sway in the financial sector. Perhaps then, the media might even start to talk about Great Britain again!

Theresa May has a big enough battle on her hands, both here in the UK and in Europe, if she is to secure an equitable settlement. Then along comes Lord Heseltine, that bastion of free speech and democracy, to say that he believes she is the right person to lead the country, although he is still firmly in the ‘Remain’ camp. To me that sounded a bit like the hangman saying that you have a pretty neck! The kiss of death from the grim reaper if ever there was!

Nevertheless, with all this unpredictability taking place around our heads we still must continue to mentor our investments and pensions. For the moment, the election of President Trump, and to some extent Brexit, would seem to have produced a nice positive bounce in the world stock markets. This can be seen below in our two demonstration portfolios. Some of our funds are still enjoying the strength of the dollar, which is giving their prices a lift when converted back to sterling. This is also contributing to the Global sectors consistently coming out top in our recent analysis.

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One of the sectors which in recent times has given a consistently positive performance is the technology sector. This all-embracing term covers pharmaceuticals, bio-technology, energy capture and distribution, nano-sciences, gene manipulation, G.M. foods, robotics, and artificial intelligence. The list goes on and on. The speed of change that these sciences are going to bring to the world is going to be breath-taking and it is underway right now. So, as investors, it is essential that some of our money should be in this sector. I have listed below some unit trusts, investment trusts and ETFs which operate in this arena.

3 month gain. 12 month gain.
Henderson Global Technology fund 15.6% 50.7%
AXA Framlington Global Technology fund 15.8% 47.6%
L & G Global Technology Index fund 16.1% 50.0%
Pictet Robotic Fund 12.4% 51.9%
Scottish Mortgage Trust 13.5% 39.5%
Polar Capital Technology Trust 18.2% 67.0%
iShares Automation & Robotics 14.3% N/A

It is difficult to trace how much money these managers are investing into new technologies, as they still have a majority percentage in the information technologies developed over the last twenty years; companies such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Facebook.

These are the funds that logically will be investing into the firms of the new age and there must be more that I have yet to recognise. Many of the firms are operating in America and so also gain from the strong dollar.

 

Somewhere a red phone box dies and a little piece of Buckingham Palace breaks off.

Since the declaration of ‘Brexit’, it has become obvious that politicians, House of Lords peers, and BBC reporters have little intention of making our exit a smooth one. None of them were ever going to be kept quiet by a lack of information. Fortunately, there does appear to be a flow of foreign money investing in the UK, taking advantage of cheap sterling and a willing labour force. Let us hope that this continues through the tribulations of the next two years, whilst we re-establish the country as an exporter of technology and manufactured goods – hopefully without losing too much sway in the financial sector. Perhaps then, the media might even start to talk about Great Britain again!

Theresa May has a big enough battle on her hands, both here in the UK and in Europe, if she is to secure an equitable settlement. Then along comes Lord Heseltine, that bastion of free speech and democracy, to say that he believes she is the right person to lead the country, although he is still firmly in the ‘Remain’ camp. To me that sounded a bit like the hangman saying that you have a pretty neck! The kiss of death from the grim reaper if ever there was!

Nevertheless, with all this unpredictability taking place around our heads we still must continue to mentor our investments and pensions. For the moment, the election of President Trump, and to some extent Brexit, would seem to have produced a nice positive bounce in the world stock markets. This can be seen below in our two demonstration portfolios. Some of our funds are still enjoying the strength of the dollar, which is giving their prices a lift when converted back to sterling. This is also contributing to the Global sectors consistently coming out top in our recent analysis.

b8 b9

One of the sectors which in recent times has given a consistently positive performance is the technology sector. This all-embracing term covers pharmaceuticals, bio-technology, energy capture and distribution, nano-sciences, gene manipulation, G.M. foods, robotics, and artificial intelligence. The list goes on and on. The speed of change that these sciences are going to bring to the world is going to be breath-taking and it is underway right now. So, as investors, it is essential that some of our money should be in this sector. I have listed below some unit trusts, investment trusts and ETFs which operate in this arena.

3 month gain. 12 month gain.
Henderson Global Technology fund 15.6% 50.7%
AXA Framlington Global Technology fund 15.8% 47.6%
L & G Global Technology Index fund 16.1% 50.0%
Pictet Robotic Fund 12.4% 51.9%
Scottish Mortgage Trust 13.5% 39.5%
Polar Capital Technology Trust 18.2% 67.0%
iShares Automation & Robotics 14.3% N/A

 

It is difficult to trace how much money these managers are investing into new technologies, as they still have a majority percentage in the information technologies developed over the last twenty years; companies such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Facebook.

These are the funds that logically will be investing into the firms of the new age and there must be more that I have yet to recognise. Many of the firms are operating in America and so also gain from the strong dollar.